Bad beer and Metallica
I've had to make a life-changing decision: after much deliberation I have decided to take a new job in Vientiane, Laos. It was a tough choice after having only moved to Istanbul and the decision-making process made me realise I'm terrible at 1) making big decisions and 2) taking full responsibility for them.
The impacts of this decision stretch beyond just my life, it's the life of my wife and two kids and all the different knock-on effects from that. I simply couldn't decide for a long time until my wife nearly held a gun to my head to make me give a straight answer on what I wanted to do.
Since then, I've been thinking about and reading about decision-making, including Annie Duke's 'Thinking in Bets'. Duke is a former pro poker player and now Harvard big brain professor, so she knows a thing or two about making decisions. And it turns out poker is a good school for sensible decisions making.
See, in poker (Texas hold-em poker to be precise) you can learn the percentages, such as how many times three aces will win against three Kings with two more cards to be shown. The Aces win 95% of the time, meaning putting your money in at this point is a very good decision. Yet, you still might lose around 4% of the time. Just because you made a good bet doesn't mean you can't lose.
Decision making should, in theory, work the same way. Except we (I) struggle here. It’s difficult to label a decision a good one if the outcome isn’t good.
Betting on the rain
Think of a decision you took that didn't work out. I'm betting you thought that because the outcome was bad it was a bad decision, hm? See, that's faulty thinking. It's the same as saying you betting on your Aces in the above example was a bad decision when you happen to lose. No, it wasn't, it was a sensible decision and you’d come out on top most of the time.
It's the same thing as people constantly saying the weather forecast app on their phone is always wrong. But if they pay attention, they'll see it gives a percentage chance of rain or sun. Giving you a picture of a rain cloud with '70% chance of rain' actually tells you there's a decent chance it won't rain. I wouldn't want to bet the house on those odds.
By now you're probably wondering why this article is titled Bad beer and Metallica when I've been talking about poker and the weather. Yes, I’ve been ramlbing so let’s jump to Metallica first.
Ignorance of youth
When I was around 16 I used to spend evenings with a good friend of mine, Leon, watching Metallica concerts (S&M to be precise) and drinking Heineken. We'd sit there talking about how the drummer was a genius, that the band was comparable to Mozart, and how the beer we were drinking was the best because it was 'pure' (only three ingredients). Meanwhile, I ignored my dad's suggestion that IPA was a far superior beer and maybe I should check out British blues music from the 60s. Obviously, he knew nothing about what was good in life.
I was certain at that time, in my beautiful, youthful ignorance, that I was right about the band and the beer, utterly certain. Except, over time I began to move those lines. I learned more about beers, a lot more, and now I'd laugh in your face if you told me Heineken was a good beer.
Likewise with Metallica. I still enjoy them from time to time, but having dabbled in drums a bit and listened to many other bands and drummers, in different genres of music, I can now see that Lars Ulrich isn't the best. The best for Metallica, perhaps, but not one of the best around.
I was 100% sure at the time that my views were correct. But fortunately, I have matured a tad and that 100% certainty about beer and Metallica has moved to 0%. And that's how it should be.
When deciding on Laos, I had to determine whether there would be a net gain for the family. I had to balance all the good and bad for me, my wife and two children when deciding on whether to stay or go because such decisions can never possibly be 100% positive. But, in the end, we all agreed it would likely be a significant net positive and we should bet on moving.
That doesn't mean it's certain that it'll work out, but whatever the outcome I'm confident that the decision is sensible and correct. Let’s see…